Is it a blip or a trend?

I reckon one of the mistakes we make in life and leadership is confusing a blip with a trend. A blip is when something happens, and you notice it. A trend is when it keeps happening, and eventually you realise it might be trying to tell you something.

We are not always very good at knowing the difference. One person says something critical, and suddenly we think everyone must be thinking it. One meeting goes badly, and we wonder if the whole thing is falling apart. But sometimes the opposite is true. We keep calling something a blip long after it has become a trend. We say we are only tired because it has been a busy week, except we have been saying that for six months. The same issue keeps appearing, and we keep treating each occurrence as though it is unrelated.

A few weeks ago, I sent my 350th weekly email. When I started writing them, there really wasn’t much of a plan. I had a few ideas, some Post-it notes, and probably a cup of tea nearby. If I had judged the whole thing on the first few emails, I could have reached almost any conclusion. But looking back across 350 of them, I can see patterns: hope, creativity, change, curiosity, and the invitation to notice possibility. I didn’t decide all of that at the beginning. It became visible because I kept paying attention.

And I wonder how much of life is like that. The things that keep draining us. The conversations that keep returning. The work that brings us alive. The ideas that refuse to disappear. Any one of those might be a blip, but when they start repeating, it is probably worth noticing.

The same is true in organisations. One complaint does not necessarily mean there is a culture problem. One person leaving does not mean everyone is unhappy. But when the same issue keeps surfacing, good leadership gets curious.

So perhaps the question is simply this: is this a blip, or is this becoming a trend?

Has this happened before? Am I beginning to see a pattern? And if it really is a trend, what might it be trying to tell me?

A blip might need a little perspective. A trend might be inviting us to change something.